German lessons

Financial Times
11-Dec-2008

Peer Steinbrück is not known for keeping his thoughts to himself. This year, the German finance minister spoke of "using the whip" on Switzerland's tax system and predicted the end of the US's role as a "financial superpower". This week, he criticised calls for a German fiscal stimulus, attacking the "crass Keynesianism" of the UK government. His anger is understandable, but it is misplaced.

In 2005, Mr Steinbrück, a Social Democrat, was appointed as finance minister in the Christian Democrat-led Grand Coalition. Germany was then running a budget deficit of more than 3 per cent. Pushing through tough fiscal plans, he wrenched the public finances back into balance, achieving a slender surplus in 2007. Mr Steinbrück is naturally irritated at calls for a fiscal stimulus that would plunge Germany far back into the red.

These exhortations are especially galling since they are being led by Gordon Brown, the UK prime minister. When he was chancellor of the exchequer, Mr Brown delighted in lecturing fellow European finance ministers on why they should follow his example, even as he turned the fiscal surplus which he inherited into a structural deficit.

Mr Steinbrück is right that the options for stimulus packages are all uncertain. He is also right that the UK's choice of stimulus - a temporary cut in value added tax - will not turn anxious hoarders into crowds of happy shoppers.

But in an interview with Newsweek magazine, he dismissed enthusiasm across the continent for a German fiscal stimulus as being an attempt to land Germany with the bill for European recovery. On this point, Mr Steinbrück is plain wrong.

Germany is the world's largest exporter and this year is expected to run a current account surplus of 7.3 per cent of output. It has acted as a massive source of supply, meeting excess demand from other parts of the world, especially within Europe. Germany's prudence was built on profligacy elsewhere.

But, as the overstretched deficit countries are all cutting back, that demand is falling away. So, as with other surplus countries, Germany must start spending. The consequences otherwise will be dire. Ifo, the Munich-based forecaster, is predicting the deepest recession in the history of the Bundesrepublik.

Mr Steinbrück's conservatism is partly politicking: no one wishes to be painted as profligate in the lead-up to next year's elections. Even so, the government must act. In the long run, the rest of Europe could learn from German prudence. But, right now, Germany could do with being a little more European.

Subjects: Appointments; General News; Government Budgets; Government News; National Income & Expenditure; Political Parties; Politics;

Countries: Germany; United Kingdom;

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