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Asian oil subsidies |
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Financial Times 04-Dec-2007 Plus ça change. In recent years, Asian governments have scrapped or relaxed fuel subsidies and liberalised controlled pricing regimes - but the region still squeaks loudest when oil prices rise. Part of that is simply greater consumption. The Energy Information Administration estimates that the energy consumption of developing Asia will grow on average by 3.2 per cent a year until 2030, outstripping every other part of the world. But the fact that governments are still writing big cheques shows how modest deregulation really has been. Indonesia, in some ways a poster child for subsidy reform when it more than doubled fuel prices two years ago, will still fork out an extra $4bn in November and December, if oil prices stay around $90 a barrel. India has actually gone backwards, offering more in terms of diesel subsidies than it did in 2005, according to the Asian Development Bank. Subsidies result in any number of distortions; thanks to corruption and cross-border arbitrage, many do not even reach the correct target. But even if crude oil crosses $100 a barrel Asian policy-makers are unlikely to do much more than tweak prices gently upwards, as witnessed in China and Taiwan. For one thing, high fuel prices can foment social unrest, Burma being the latest example. Inflation is another consideration. Indonesian inflation averaged 16 per cent the year Jakarta ditched subsidies, while in Malaysia consumer prices peaked after regulated petrol prices were hiked in February last year. Higher fuel prices would immediately feed into food prices, already at the forefront of consumer price hikes, and could subsequently spill over into wage inflation. This is of particular concern to China, where inflation is at 11 year highs. Asian governments, several of which face elections, will seek to shield consumers as much as possible - and will be grateful that their stronger currencies partially mitigate the higher dollar prices. Companies: Asian Development Bank ;Industries: Admin of Economic Programs; Public Finance Activities; Public Admin; Regulation & Admin of Utilities; General Government Administration; Subjects: Prices; Company News; Government News; Government Policy; Regulation of Business; Countries: Indonesia; India; FT.com Copyright The Financial Times Ltd. All rights reserved. |
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