View of the Day: Chinese consumers

Financial Times
24-Nov-2008
By Jing Ulrich

Signs are emerging that the anxiety gripping consumers around the world is spreading to China, says Jing Ulrich, managing director and chairman of China equities at JPMorgan.

"Despite the global economic slowdown, falling stock markets, multiple natural disasters and a stagnant housing sector, Chinese consumer spending had been remarkably resilient for most of this year - until what appears to have been markedly slower growth following the "Golden Week holiday in early October," she says.

Ms Ulrich says major Chinese department stores have seen lighter traffic in recent weeks and the outlook is for continued deceleration in sales growth.

"Our discussions with operators have found a similar slowdown among some apparel and luxury goods retailers. Even mass-market food retailers and fast food chains have shown signs of moderation since mid-October."

She believes the slowing Chinese economy presents a major test to consumer resilience, but retains an optimistic long-term view of consumption.

"The government's plans to expand the social safety net should reduce the need for precautionary saving and encourage consumption in the long run," she says.

"In the near-term, however, consumer confidence will be tied to the government's success at reviving the country's property and stock markets, and improving employment and income security."

Companies: JPMorgan Chase & Co ;

Ticker Symbols: us:JPM;

Subjects: Disasters; Equities; General News; Market News; Markets;

Countries: China;

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