Carluccio's has become the latest restaurateur to issue a cautious outlook for the sector after it said trading conditions would remain tough for the foreseeable future.

The Italian restaurant chain, founded by celebrity chef Antonio Carluccio, overcame poor summer weather to report a 21 per cent increase in sales for the 53 weeks to September 28. However, it warned that pre-opening costs would mean pre-tax profit for the period would be "slightly below" expectations.

The company said it has not seen any deterioration in trade since it last updated the market in May, but conceded "the current pressure on the UK economy and the UK consumer is without precedent in recent times".

"In this context, the company expects trading conditions to remain very challenging over the coming months for all consumer-facing business," it said.

Investec, KBC Peel Hunt, Numis Securities and Altium Securities cut 2009 forecasts for the group, citing weaker consumer outlook and food and labour cost pressure.

Douglas Jack, of Numis, said Carluccio's was one of the sector's companies most exposed to planned changes to minimum wage laws in October 2009, which will no longer allow restaurateurs to top up waiting staff's pay with credit card tips.

He reckoned the change, which would see the company increase hourly pay from £3.75 an hour to £5.73, could cost Carluccio's an extra £1m a year - or 20 per cent of pre-tax profits.

The shares, down 58 per cent during the past 12 months, closed up 3½p at 81½p. Carluccio's will report preliminary results on December 9.

At first glance, Carluccio's 21 per cent jump in turnover is impressive. But shrewd investors should ask how much of growth is driven by new restaurant openings rather than by organic growth. Six new restaurants were opened in the period, bringing the number of Carluccio's outlets to 39. Unfortunately, management does not reveal like-for-like sales figures. Attempts to gain a sense of how the underlying business is doing are further skewed by the 53-week reporting period. At 12.1 times 2008 earnings, Carluccio's shares trade at a premium to its sector peers. One can argue this is justified given Carluccio's strong brand and debt-free status. Yet given the uncertain outlook for 2009 and lack of clarity about underlying performance, investors could be better off putting their money in its rival Restaurant Group.