Nordics stay hot for globalisation

Financial Times
10-Apr-2008
By Quentin Peel in London

The backlash against globalisation is spreading among the wealthy nations. It started with worries about job losses. Now it is fuelled by concerns about the credit crunch in the US and Europe.

In a global poll published by the BBC World Service in February, the weight of opinion in 22 out of 34 countries was that "economic globalisation, including trade and investment" was growing too quickly. In the wealthy industrialised nations of the Group of Seven, an average of 57 per cent held that view.

Only in developing countries was there a feeling that globalisation should go faster.

An FT/Harris poll last July showed that large majorities in the US, UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain saw globalisation as negative. Such sentiment has encouraged protectionist rhetoric in the US election campaign. Even in Germany, the world's most successful exporter, a leading government minister denounced investment moving east as "caravan capitalism".

Yet in one small and particularly wealthy corner of Europe, the mood is far less gloomy. Attitudes towards globalisation are positively enthusiastic. In spite of high costs, high living standards, and what many would regard as absurdly generous welfare systems, the Nordic world has flourished in the new competitive era.

Five prime ministers - from Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden and Iceland - hosted a "Nordic Globalisation Forum" this week in the unlikely setting of RiksgrÀnsen, a Swedish ski resort inside the Arctic Circle. It was both a celebration of Nordic success and an attempt to analyse how those countries could continue to reap the rewards of globalisation. In spite of the cold, and however much a handfulof sober economists attempted to warn against complacency, the mood of optimism persisted.

"There is a Nordic sense of being," said Fredrik Reinfeldt, the youthful centre-right prime minister of Sweden. "It is not just about institutions. There are many optimists in this, all in terms of globalisation. It is good that we are optimists. But we must not only protect our [Nordic] model. We must develop it."

The optimism has been around a while. The Eurobarometer survey shows Sweden, Denmark and Finland consistently in the top four members of the European Union expressing satisfaction in their lives. The Danes and Swedes are also most positive in seeing globalisation as an opportunity, not a threat - although on that score the Finns are more cautious.

"We have done well because of globalisation, and not just in spite of it," says Christian Ketels, of Harvard Business School, author of a Nordic Globalisation Barometer that attempts to measure how well the region is facing up to competition. "The Nordic region is like the bumble bee: it flies, against all the rules of aerodynamics."

On the plus side, the Nordic states boast high productivity - on average 17 per cent higher than in the rest of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development - and high employment rates, thanks to high female employment. On the down side, the combination of high domestic taxes, small markets and high domestic purchasing power means high prices, says Mr Ketels.

They have invested heavily in education and training (where Finland consistently tops the OECD polls, especially for maths), and in science and technology infrastructure. In spite of their reputation as highly regulated models of social democracy, they are all in the top 14 in the World Bank's ranking for ease of doing business. Strong social cohesion shows up in more optimistic attitudes in the younger generation than in other European countries.

Yet there are worries, especially over immigration. The labour force has peaked, and there is a need to attract more migrants to sustain growth.

There is also a dilemma. On one hand, there is a desire to tell the world of their success, and market the brand of the "Nordic model". On the other, they are conscious that if everyone opts for a high- tech, high-welfare solution, the Nordic comparative advantage may disappear. Perhaps that is why they retreat to the Arctic Circle to talk about it.

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