Bad timing for luxury king's trip downmarket

Financial Times
06-Mar-2008
By Paul Betts and Andrew Hill

Bernard Arnault's foray into mass retailing has so far not lived up to expectations. A year ago, the king of luxury together with Colony Capital, the US private equity group, splashed out about $5.2bn to buy a 9.1 per cent stake in Carrefour, the largest hypermarket chain after Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT - News) .

The LVMH chairman and controlling shareholder clearly considered there was considerable untapped value at Carrefour. He took advantage of a classic feud among Carrefour's controlling Halley family shareholders to move in. The idea was to release the unexploited value of the French mass retailer's significant property portfolio. At the same time, Mr Arnault and Colony Capital would put pressure on Carrefour's management to sharpen their act.

But the performance of Carrefour's shares has been disappointing, to say the least. The arrival of Mr Arnault and his private equity friends has not provided the stimulus to the share price that many people had hoped. Instead, they have been falling in recent months, like most other equities.

The future is hardly brighter. Consumption in many of Carrefour's key markets is coming under stress as consumers fret about their loss of purchasing power and price competition intensifies among mass retailers. Luxury goods customers seem largely immune to economic recessions but this is not the case for ordinary supermarket shoppers.

The property market is also heading south, so it is not the best of times to spin off or float the Carrefour property bank and release all the promised hidden value inside the company. And now the Halley family has decided to split altogether, give up their double voting rights in the company and leave the field open to Mr Arnault and his private equity partners.

Apart from their own feuds, the Halleys clearly found Mr Arnault's presence uncomfortable. They are now probably hoping he will work his luxury goods magic to allow them to sell out on a high. But don't bet on it. Margins on goods on supermarket shelves are not like those for Louis Vuitton bags.

Transforming TI

Don't expect miracles, fireworks or grandiose solutions on Friday from Franco Bernabè, Telecom Italia's new chief executive. It is simply not his style. He has always been a down-to-earth manager who likes to take his time analysing all the details of a difficult situation before acting.

So what can Mr Bernabè do? He certainly cannot sell a growth story to the market given all the divestments that have taken place and the company's hefty debt burden. Nor can he sell a restructuring story. For he would be the first to acknowledge that the previous management had already done a lot of cost cutting and streamlining, and the group remains a fairly profitable company with a good domestic market share and cash flow.

This leaves Mr Bernabè with little option other than selling a less exciting but more realistic industrial transformation story to the markets. With a small panoply of instruments at his disposal, this transformation strategy will require time, much imagination and hard work. Investors and Telefónica will have to be patient while he reorganises the company's industrial processes and tries to refocus it on selected segments that show promise for growth.

At the same time, he has already been exercising his diplomatic skills to smooth what have been stormy relations with competitors and regulators, while reassuring his worried workforce of no additional cost-cutting traumas ahead.

Scary mergers

"They feel welcome, they're excited about the future and they're relieved to be part of a company with a strong balance sheet and a strong future." Hans Wijers, the chief executive of Akzo Nobel (NASDAQ: AKZOY - News) , was on Thursday celebrating the Dutch group's full-year results - and describing the reaction of ICI employees to the £8.1bn ($16.2bn) takeover of the historic UK industrial company, which was completed in January.

Tom Glocer, Reuters' chief executive, was also in bumptious mood as he consigned an independent Reuters to history with the last annual results presentation for the UK business information company before it is swallowed by Thomson Corp (NYSE: TOC - News) in a £7.9bn takeover. Next time he gets a chance to talk to investors, it will be as chief executive of Thomson Reuters on May 1.

On such days, it is hard to remember just how disruptive and risky big takeovers can be. It is natural for Mr Wijers and Mr Glocer to be excited. One has just completed and one is about to complete a deal that will make or break his reputation.

But it is too early for celebration. As both men acknowledged in their presentations on Thursday, the hard work of integration lies ahead, and the number of jobs likely to go as the companies strain to achieve promised synergies is as yet undefined.

As Mr Glocer told colleagues on the day the Thomson Reuters deal - and its promised $500m of cost savings - was announced: "This may scare some of you." It should still scare him, too.

world.view@ft.com

Companies: Telecom Italia SpA ;Wal-Mart Stores Inc ;Akzo Nobel NV ;Reuters Group PLC ;LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton ;Colony Capital LLC ;Thomson Corp ;Carrefour SA ;Wal-Mart Stores Inc ;Akzo Nobel NV ;Thomson Corp ;

Ticker Symbols: fr:CA; nl:AKZA; it:TIT; ca:TOC; us:WMT; fr:MC; uk:RTR; NYSE:WMT; NASDAQ:AKZOY; NYSE:TOC;

Industries: Finance & Insurance; Real Estate & Rental & Leasing; Security Commodity Contracts & Like Activity; Food & Beverage Stores; Retail Trade; Miscellaneous Intermediation; Grocery Stores; Real Estate; Other Financial Investment Activities; Grocery exc Convenience Stores;

Subjects: Shareholdings; Company News; Mergers & Acquisitions;

Countries: France; United States of America;

FT.com
Copyright The Financial Times Ltd. All rights reserved.